Simple, For Father’s Day…

Two men walk, side by side, destination unimportant,

Youth turns, asks, plaintively, “What of all this?”

Elder smiles, replies, “Here lies the simple truth

To cleanse what is sullied

And when no dirt found, rather improvement be made”

Youth, thoughtful, responds, “Is this to be the goal

That you have set upon yourself, happening upon perfection?”

Response, dignified, “Never happening upon perfection

But attempting nonetheless, understanding that effort is not measured

But rather taken, a whole, scattered amongst the life fully born”

Silence

“Then to answer, rather question more fully,

Of a life, beginning to twilight, if not fully born,

Has the whole been taken?”

Answer found in depth of knowledge “In you, redemption, and if not, then attempt”

Youth, smiling, perhaps understanding, “And you, pride, wisdom, love, father.”

Is Appropriation a Business Model?

A few quick thoughts on things I’ve seen around and about this past week, centered on the question of whether or not appropriating a good idea is a business model.

1) Twitter doesn’t have a revenue model, but Yammer does. I’m pretty sure Yammer is Twitter, only they say it’s for “businesses and their employees” and they charge for premium features, which are to be utilized by the administrator of the company. It won the TechCrunch50 in 2008.

2) ChaCha is free, but they don’t have the revenues to advertise. Someone liked ChaCha’s idea enough to start KGB.com, which comes complete with an onslaught of television advertising and a $.99 per text charge.

3) I hope the Palm Pre is just an iPhone clone, so when I get one in two weeks, I can finally be happy with my Mobile again.

4) Amazon has such a great product with the 2nd generation Kindle, they appropriated themselves with the Kindle DX (I’m only half kidding, I mean… it is a little bigger…).

5) Facebook’s New App, Farm Town, which I’m sure will hit full viral within the next 10 days, is Facebook’s old app, Mafia Wars, with a sleak new interface and Flash based Gameplay. It’s also much nicer (Growing Plants and Animals vs. Robbing and Killing). The game also launched with a full-on revenue model, which the iPhone versions of Mafia Wars took weeks to apply.

Isn't it cute...?

6) Rick Reilly, the incredibly highly paid, formerly talented sports writer, has no problem appropriating other people’s material, or his own. You might not think this is “business” in and of itself, but this man has turned himself into a franchise with his columns.

Deadspin doesn't like Reilly very much...

7) Hulu is Youtube done right. Hulu has a revenue Model, advertising to break into the market, higher quality, and broadcasting deals. YouTube has hampster dance. I still love Youtube, but it’s been “jacked,” and I’m curious to see what Google can/will do about it.

My biggest fear is that the current marketplace disincentivizes innovators. If you want to be successful in business, is it more important to have an idea or a plan? I personally think that both are important, but the planning portion is easier. If the plan is being disproportionately rewarded, then more business-minded entrepreneurs will flock to appropriation, and sooner or later we’ll end up right back where we started. This whole “internet 2.0″ deal is cool, but I’m ready for round 3. We don’t need more Wikipedia, we need more of this (Microsoft’s pretty incredible photo thing). Reward the scientists, not the hustlers!

Just started reading The Stimulist, and so far, I’m a fan. I even applied to write for them, but have yet to hear anything. Feel free to apply pressure on my behalf. Send ‘em to the roll.

Opinions on Business and Social Media…

In my last post, I briefly described an interesting phenomena that is occurring in today’s business climate. I believe we are seeing an emerging demographic of consumers: Passionate Fans.

I believe it truly began with MacWorld and the ever interesting PC vs. Mac debates. Suddenly, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates were celebrities whose every movement represented their brand.I understand that there is a history of management representation (Lee Iacocca and Chrysler, who filed for bankruptcy today), but it has truly reached a fever pitch, or tipping point, with advances in social media.

Some people really love their purchased products, and a select few love them so much they carry the banner of the manufacturer. Take a look at the picture below.

I don't know if this is real but...

Apple has built a brand of cool, innovative, expensive, and elitist technology (except for their iPod, they just want everyone to have 10 of those). Steve Jobs dresses, talks, and acts the part. And there are Apple users out there who dress, talk, and act the same company line. Only… they are the buyer, not the employee. I think it’s interesting. If you think I’m crazy, feel free to check out the blog of Fake Steve Jobs, or perform a Twitter Search for Steve Jobs. The largest account has over 49,000 followers.

Zappos.com is an online apparel store with a focus on service and customer satisfaction. I mentioned them in my last post. Their CEO, Tony Hsiesh, is a millionaire, and a seemingly cool guy. Their company has been listed as one of the most admired and most fun work environments in the country. I do not know Mr. Hsiesh, nor do I have any relation to Zappos. Can someone please explain to me why he is one of six people I follow on Twitter? He tweet’s about everything from Southwest Airlines, blankets, and swine flu (his most recent as of this post) to his attendance at Brittany Spears concerts to da Vinci quotations. And I’m not the only one who is caught up, he has over 500,000 followers on Twitter.

I read these tweets with a chuckle, wondering what this seemingly insignificant connection is doing to build his brand. Same goes for Sir Richard Branson, the CEO of Virgin Int’l. I knew he had an island, but I didn’t know he sponsored Formula One Race Car Teams, and good ones at that!

Heck, I even follow Shaquille O’Neal, and I’m thinking the genuine humor of his Twitter Account would tempt me into buying a sequel to his ill-fated rap attempt (Shaq-Fu if I’m not mistaken). It’s that good. These people are building their company brand through sheer personality, and people love it!

I would love to see the numbers for companies whose CEO’s are active in social media. I bet their seeing better revenues and higher customer satisfaction, even if they haven’t changed one aspect of their business model. I guess you can call it the “Tom” effect from the good old MySpace days. If you were a MySpacer, you always had at least one friend! Tom Anderson didn’t even own the company by the time I joined, but he was still my first friend.

The building of Tom’s personality (or avatar, if you will) via MySpace turned into countless press releases, news stories, and blog posts.  I’m relatively confident the Harvard Business Review will be writing case studies on this very topic, if they haven’t already.

I would love to see some market research into consumer behavior and spending habits before and after experiencing companies in the social media atmosphere. I for one believe that most would be more likely to buy from someone they are “friends” with or that they are “following.” Am I wrong?

Facebook realized the power of social media in advertising/brand building with the launch of their ill-fated Beacon project. They were confident if your news feed told you what people were buying, you would probably follow suit. Unfortunately, from a learning standpoint, the program didn’t last long enough to glean any real results. Henceforth Facebook has followed the Twitter model and just allowed you to talk about anything you want via Status Updates. Let’s see where that goes!

As I watched the NBA playoffs on TNT, I noticed that on their station graphics, they have both the Twitter and Facebook icons. They also have the announcers mention that TNT coverage of the playoffs extends onto these mediums. I mean, we are watching a live basketball game on the television, and the station is reminding us we can get updates in 140 characters or less (Twitter) if we so choose. I want to call this stuff revolutionary, but I’m not quite prepared to do that. They can’t make money…

Twitter has just started developing a revenue model. Facebook is close to breakeven, but by no means profitable. I find this interesting in comparison to the people and companies utilizing these services successfully to improve their products. Where is it all going to go?

On a blog note, today has been the most active day in my year plus history, which is what prompted me to write a second post. Tell your friends! Make comments! I just might crack 100 views for the day, in which case, I’m going to celebrate.

This post is probably disjointed and for that I apologize, but I find the interaction of business and social media to be fascinating and would love to learn more about it.

Four Mistakes Employers Are Making In This Job Market…

It’s easy enough to find a dozen articles listing the mistakes job hunters make in their search. There are hundreds of experts extolling the virtue of a perfect resume. Some are even willing to write it for you for a small fee. Well gee, thanks for your commitment.

Unfortunate for all of the job seekers, it truly is an employers market. And because of this, many companies are openly taking advantage of the applicant pool. My question is, just because it’s possible at this point in time, does it make it right? Furthermore, will there be any long term ramifications to companies who  are so quick to forget their pledges to the importance of human capital? When the tables are turned, will these potential employees revolt against their unjust treatment in the marketplace?

Honestly, I’m not sure, but if I were them, I would definitely keep a mental checklist of all the ridiculousness that is a job search in this recession. Regardless of current economic conditions, I believe that many (note: I refuse to believe that every company is doing this, and I would love to hear from hiring managers who are bucking this trend) companies are making big mistakes when it comes to their hiring process, and I’ve listed the four I believe are the biggest.

1) Posting Jobs To Build Applicant Pools
We’ve seen it time and time again, although we’re not always sure of what is actually happening. Company X or Recruiter Y will post a fabulous job, chalk-full of benefits and awesome job responsibilities. They will post this job across the internet. They will collect resumes, and conveniently ask about your gender, race, and any other information they can glean from your profile/resume/etc. They probably already have the candidate in mind, or they aren’t actually hiring for the position currently. But when they do, it was publicly listed, and as an EoE (Equal Opportunity Employer), they have fulfilled their requirements. This tactic is the equivalent of the NFL’s Rooney Rule, which requires that all teams hiring for a coach must interview a minority candidate. I think the idea is necessary, but it’s practical application has been anything but successful.

So you apply for all of these wonderful jobs littered about the web and,

2) You never hear anything.
In my humble opinion, a no is a no is a no, but it’s a heck of a lot better than dead space. As much as automated responses annoy me, at least I know for sure that my application/resume/cover letter/hard work/prayers/etc. have entered into the pile with everyone else’s. That in and of itself feels like an accomplishment. Surely employers know that in today’s climate, people are applying for hundreds of jobs just to get a single interview. Why not set-up an automated response, or even better, a real hiring manager/human resources person to respond. It doesn’t have to be fancy, but it should exist.

And even for the few lucky enough to get that first interview,

3) Employers ignore your financial and time considerations
A friend of mine just finished his fourth interview with a company. The first, a preliminary phone interview, went well and he was excited about meeting face to face. The company was located 60 miles from his home. He drove for an hour plus to attend the interview, and the person who was scheduled to meet with him could not, so he was interviewed by another non-hiring employee. He then drove an hour plus home. He also had to utilize toll roads, and the total cost of his trip was over $20. They then called him for a second live interview, and just recently, his third. My friend has spent $60 dollars and well over six hours for the opportunity to potentially maybe get this draw against commission and no benefits position within the company. They also informed him, on his 4th interview, that there were other people applying for the position and they weren’t sure if he was the right fit. Ouch.

Even if a potential employee can navigate through this gauntlet, there is always,

4) The Lowball Offer
Company X or Recruiter Y love you as an applicant. They even want to make you an offer! Unfortunately, after all of the back and forth over minimum salary requirements, bonuses, benefits, etc., their offer comes in the (e)mail, and it shortchanges your value. They know it, and you know it. They have changed the time from, “the right fit for the right value” into “how desperate is this guy/gal.” Is that a company you want to work for, or a company you will stay with once the “market returns?” I’m not so sure companies such as this are taking a long view of their “most important resource.”

Call me crazy, but if/when I have the survive this maze of employment, I’ll remember who the honest and ethical players were, and I guarantee I won’t forget who ignored me, laughed at me, pretended to be interested, disregarded my needs, or anything else that devalued me as an employee.

I still remember Proctor and Gamble’s cumbersome online application for college interns, and how quickly I was rejected from that program. I’ve always heard how great of a company they are to work for, but I have no real interest. The application didn’t leave much room for expression of individuality, and I never made it to the interview round. It’s possible I wasn’t qualified, but I don’t think they could have known that through their limited questionaire.

I just can’t believe that economic turmoil universally equates into bad hiring practices. I would love to hear about companies who are still treating their employees, or prospective employees, the right way, and I honestly believe that those companies will emerge stronger than ever, with a more loyal following of employees, customers, and fans.

I wonder what fanship will do to the corporate landscape over the next five years. I really like Richard Branson. I think he’s brilliant, and I’m a big fan of the openness of his Twitter account. Yet I don’t think I’ve ever purchased anything that in any way helps Virgin’s bottom line. Maybe I will, just because of his tweets. Same thing with Zappos. Free Shipping both ways! They give people free shoes if there is a problem! I mean, sounds like an awesome company. I just haven’t ever bought shoes online. If I do, I know that’s where I’ll go, but it hasn’t materialized yet. I wonder.

Two of my favorites out there right now:
http://www.lifehacker.com
A great site about simple productivity.

http://www.armchairculture.com
A diverse and sometimes hilarious site about any and everything, written by a good friend.

To the blogroll they go!

And now that he’s back…

It has been some time since I’ve entertained myself, and a select few others, with any of my sociopoltical econbiz babble. But I must admit, it feels good to be back.

Understandably, it’s been a rough quarter for business people around the globe. I wish I could say I was immune, or rather my company was immune, but that is not the case.

I have been working as a financial analyst for a utility contractor that specializes in horizontal directional drilling. It’s pretty innovative technology, and our drill teams are truly industry experts. I however, cannot quite consider myself the same. I’ve been tasked with all financial projections, statements, and project estimation thus far. Since I’ve assumed these duties, our 2nd quarter outlook has improved by about 40%, which is good news. However, I have begun to process of identifying my next great opportunity, if only because I am currently operating on an island of numbers, where none of my co-workers, nor my boss, have any strong desire to work within the realities of corporate finance. The business has operated quite well on feel and gut instinct, so even though market conditions have changed substantially, none of the key players want to adapt the business model or become more efficient. I’m making incremental progress, but I’m meeting a lot of resistance along the way, and I’m truly beginning to feel that I can grow more as a professional and be more useful in another environment.

Strangely enough, I’ve been out of the loop in regard to politics, and the rest of the business world. The last unemployment number I saw was 8.1% nationally, and I also saw an interesting statistic that showed Palm Coast, FL (my hometown) tied for 17th in the country for highest unemployment rate. I believe we were somewhere in the 11-12% range.

I’ve taken a much more active interest in my community and my state, and so far my efforts have been rebuffed at every turn. This is the first time in my life where wanting to get involved and help isn’t enough, and these few situations have been draining. I attended a state democratic party meeting, and I loved how accessible all of my party representatives were at the time, but was appalled at their lack of interest in anything I had to say, and even more appalled at their complete lack of follow through.

I must admit I think they are wrong on multiple counts regarding party strategy, and I’m sure that this belief has influenced my perception of them. I also decided to get involved in a local education committee tasked with performance issues within my school district. I spent two hours listening to people complain about everything under the sun, and when I reviewed the committees past activity, I found it to be ridiculous. In three years, this unnamed committee proposed a meager 36 resolutions to the school board. Upon quick analysis, 15 of these proposals were pet projects of the individuals involved that in no way even attempted to perform the duties of the committee (improving performance in schools), 15 of the projects might have some value with proper research and execution, and only 8 of the proposals were home runs. This alone was frustrating enough, but when I inquired into the acceptance of these proposals, or their performance, I was told that the committee did not track any of their proposals after submittal.

If we can’t take the time to research, advocate, track, analyze, and amend, how can we expect to improve an education system in disarray?

Beyond these setbacks, everything has been going well. I received my open water diving certification, and scuba diving is a truly wonderful experience. I recommend it to anyone with the time and a bit of money. I’m slowly falling into the twitter trap, and I’m still not sure how I feel about it. As a news source, it’s incredibly useful. For some humor (@The_Real_Shaq), it also works quite well. But as a “I need to tell everyone everything all the time” tool, I find it obnoxious. I’ll revisit this feeling in three months, in less than 140 characters.

It really looks like this...

Sporcle.com has helped to keep me sane in the workplace (People are more productive when utilizing diversions in the workplace. See!) Hulu is growing on me, although they need better search. I’ve also found some excellent blogs that I’ll slowly add to the roll. The first, one of my very good friends, who is three months into his career as an affiliate marketer for an Internet start-up. Check it out here.

I decided to go on a diet and start exercising. Terrible decision, but it’s working. Terrible in that I love food. I mean, like I really enjoy cooking and eating almost any kind of food. Apparently, Italian food is not as healthy as I once pretended it was. But it is the best decision for me, and I’ve been an athlete most of my life, so I don’t want to let the stresses associated with life turn me into something I’m not.

Well, that’s all I have time for today, but it was fun to get back into the swing of things. I’ll be typing at everyone soon enough!

Notes on the Present…

Barack Obama has won. We know this. I feel like now is an appropriate time to discuss the political landscape, which goals President-elect Obama will be able to achieve while in office, and the markets reaction to the election.

I’d like to start with the market, if only because my prediction regarding the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P were off. From what I understand, the stock market has a higher average annual return in the first year of a Democratic President than in the first year of a Republican administration. This is simply a historical fact. I (wrongfully) believed that market sentiment in post-election day trading would reflect a kind of cautious optimism, with a major late day sell off to capture gains. I should have realized that in a recession and global financial crisis, the markets would not be as inclined to agree. However, hindsight is always 20/20 and I just didn’t see it coming. The Dow is down another 4.75% and the NAS and S&P are tracking close. I’ve gone on the record with a few associates with my belief that we haven’t reached the bottom. I believe there will be small gains, but the trend will continue downward up until, or potential after, a new stimulus package is passed by Congress. I’m not advocating for such a package for any partisan reason, nor am I even sure that I’m advocating another stimulus, but it will come. Hopefully, it will help.

From what I’ve heard, the S&P could realign with a bottom of 750-800. It will be difficult for the Dow to track below 7700, so we’ll call that the bottom. Perhaps it’s my bias toward the tech sector, but I believe the NASDAQ won’t fall much below it’s October 27th bottom of 1505, so we’ll put the floor in at 1450. The only other ticker I follow with any consistency is the NAS Powershares (QQQQ). I still believe that any opportunity to buy at or around 28 will be a steal as a medium to long term investment.

Moving on… Congratulations Rahm Emanuel. From the CNN reports I’ve read, “Rahm-bo” will be an excellent Chief of Staff. I understand that there will be (and already has been) some rumbling about Emanuel’s brazen, partisan approach, and I understand why. You are correct when you state that Barack Obama is a liberal democrat. You are correct when you state the Rahm Emanuel is a liberal democrat. But you are wrong when you state that they will govern in that manner. Barack Obama will fill out a bipartisan and well-rounded cabinet. As per his campaign, he will listen to all sides of an argument or issue before making a decision. Once that decision is made, people will have to get over their feelings and move onto the next topic. There is a lot to be done, and there are plenty of blow-hards on both sides of the aisle in Washington. Rahm isn’t one of them. That reason alone will make him a great Chief of Staff.

Congratulations, now please do your job, and do it well.

He is not the decision maker, but he will be a bulldozer that clears useless information out of the way for President Obama. Utilizing the cliche “good cop/bad cop” approach, Democrats and Republicans will have to come to the middle and work together. As honestly and directly as I can state it: Barack Obama will govern from the center. He will govern as a moderate. What makes me say that? Well, lets examine a few of his proposals and the current state of the government.

A quick glance at the issues listed by Barack Obama on his campaign webpage begin to give insight into his priorities.

1) The Economy

• A new stimulus bill will be passed, either by the current Congress or soon after January 20th. It will probably come in the form of tax rebates, somewhere in the range of $200. As much as Oil companies hate the concept of a windfall tax, I can’t be opposed to it when the country is in a certifiable recession and Exxon Mobil posted the largest US quarterly profit ever. If this tax relief is enacted, even for one year, the average American will realize an adjusted income rise of about 4%. I could be wrong here, but that’s coming a lot closer to tracking inflation than any other adjusted wage gains of the past 20 years.
• This stimulus will also include some new and much needed protection from foreclosure. However, I believe it must on an individual or families primary and only home, and to receive relief, the family must be able to afford traditional 30 yr/fixed mortgage payments on the property.
• Part of an Obama relief plan will go into infrastructure improvement, which will have an immediate impact on the unemployment rate. This matters to me for a multitude of reasons, but the primary two being that I work for two infrastructure companies and that I live in a county with the 9th highest unemployment rate in the country.
• Overall, my taxes, and the taxes of the majority of the U.S. population, who are just like me, will GO DOWN.
• We won’t touch free trade, nor should we. I understand there is a lot of talk of fair trade, which is an incredibly nice way of seeing how the world economy could be, but it’s just not a reality at this point. Obama is not a protectionist and will (or at least should) give up on these “goals” quickly. I believe this is a good thing.
• We won’t realize 5 million new jobs via the green movement, but progress will be made.

2) Education

• The last time I tracked Federal spending on education was around 2006. It was about 3% of the total budget. I believe it’s safe to assume it is no more than 4.5% in the 2008 budget. No Child Left Behind is both flawed and severely underfunded. However, it’s core principles are sound, and the policy should be revised. These were my thoughts from day one, and they mirror the policies proposed by Obama.
• Obama has charged every American with making sacrifices and giving back. He also wants to help. I believe the best example of the conjoining of these policies is the fully refundable tax credit given for the first $4,000 of college tuition, if the student performs 100 hours of community service. Under Jeb Bush, a well-liked (especially by me) Republican Governor of the State of Florida, the bright futures scholarship was established for students who performed a certain amount of community service. It makes sense, and it works. I also believe that education SHOULD be the easiest issue for both parties of government to agree upon.

3) Energy Policy

• Here Obama has some incredibly lofty goals, which I can guarantee not all of which will be met. However, there are some sound and realistic policies that Obama will implement to improve our environment and our energy situation.
• First and foremost, renewable energy investment makes sense. Ask GOOGLE, who invested millions of dollars into a solar thermal company. The government will subsidize these renewable energy companies. This will spark more innovation.
• Clean Coal is either a buzz word or a potentially useful technology. I don’t know. I do know that Nuclear Energy makes sense, and I actually like having someone in office who agrees in principle, but whose going to pour over the details before the government approves a large scale expansion of Nuclear Power plants. I don’t believe “safe” and “secure” should be words used to roadlblock building these plants, but attainable conditions and requirements should be created. If you see Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) involved, then we’ll know that Obama is serious.

I believe that last “big project” that will be achieved under the first four years of this administration is mandatory and universal healthcare for children. It will pass, and I don’t believe it will be as partisan of a battle as some people expect. Hillary Clinton wanted universal health care and made it a cornerstone of her campaign. A lot of conservatives didn’t like that concept (author bias: I support universal health care). Obama stuck to his initial agenda of children’s health care all the way through the election. It will be step one. SCHIP, a current government children’s health care program has been popular, and it’s expansion in 2007 was vetoed by President Bush. Add it all up, and the U.S. should start protecting its children’s health within the first two years of the Obama administration. Again, I believe this a moderate approach to a partisan issue, and Obama comes out in the center. If I knew anything else about the administration or it’s success, I have a feeling that I’d be working at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

I love my job, but feel free to e-mail me about opportunities. My resume includes 12 blog posts!

I don’t have much more in the way of knowledge regarding the Obama administration, but I believe we’re in for an interesting two years. The economy will recover, we will reduce our troop level in Iraq to 30,000-40,000 by then end of 2010. I hope to see improvements in Afghanistan. I’m strong believer in both Gates and Petraeus, and believe they should remain in their posts. I’m not sure of other cabinet posts, but I’ll continue to watch closely as Obama identifies his economic team.

I want to close with a few quotes made by Republicans officials after the election. I believe this kind of honesty and integrity is what the Republican Party will have to bank on in the upcoming years.

“We have got to clean up, reform and rebuild the Republican Party before we can ask Americans to trust us again. This must begin with either a change of command at the highest levels or our current leaders must embrace a bold new direction,” Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said in a statement moments after Obama clinched the election. “Our party must start today to admit our mistakes, fight for our convictions and encourage new conservatives to run for office.”

DeMint - Thank You.

“The party just simply lost its way,” said Republican Dick Armey, the former House majority leader from Texas. “It was no longer about small government and individual liberties … and the party became enormously unattractive to the American people.”

Armey - Frank and Honest Assessment

I’ve said it a few times, and I believe it bears repeating. The Republican Party and it’s agenda is not inherently bad. Or at least it wasn’t. The tenants of small government, personal responsibility, free markets, state’s rights and responsibilities, and a strong national defense are all fair and well supported policies. I don’t necessarily believe with republicans on a host of social issues, but I think that’s ok. I think, given the structure of our government, a healthy two party debate is necessary for proper policy. But when the GOP isn’t sure what it stands for, it leads to people arguing not about the issues, but rather about the character of the candidate and his/her constituency. You can regain the trust of the American people by identifying conservative policies that people want in their lives and government, and sticking to those policies. I can’t tell you what the right ones are, but I can tell you there is plenty of room in the U.S. government for a difference of opinion.

Like I said before, I’m glad that Barack Obama doesn’t have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, but I’m also hopeful that there are Republicans in office who will be willing to work toward the middle.

Early Returns…

I’m incredibly excited about tonight. I believe that the best candidate won, and I believe that he has received a mandate to lead. I understand that there will be tension from citizens and politicians alike, and I also understand that the road to true change is long and arduous. I’m still excited and hopeful. I’m not the only one.

I’m still watching the Senate elections, and I’m still watching the swing states. I was wrong about my home state of Florida, and that’s great news. I was seemingly too conservative in my initial predictions think I was close in my initial predictions, at least on the National Level. Obama will take at least 52% of the popular vote. Furthermore, Pennsylvania and Virginia voted blue. North Carolina and Indiana are still open, but leaning Obama. Missouri and Montana are still open, but leaning McCain. He will take closer to 350 electoral votes.

Democrats are still on track to take 58 seats in the Senate, which is a great number for promoting bipartisanship, especially considering the conservative nature of many newly elected members. The gains in the house were smaller than public projections, but most of the contests made sense on a local level. Except for Bachmann. You can check the elections for Flagler County (especially Mosquito Control) here. I was completely wrong about the Anti-Gay Marriage Amendment in Florida, which passed with about 63% of the vote.

I wanted to write tonight not for my own words, but to pass along a few of the text messages and status updates from friends and family. I can’t quite grasp the magnitude of these results at this time, so I’m not even going to try. I’m overwhelmed.

** I’m so happy I could cry! Talk about the land of opportunity!
** America Moves Forward. A New Great Era
** He won’t let us down
** It’s the election we [young people] won
** This is good
** Our generation starting off with a bang. Now Obama has to be as great as we think he is

Also, Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, stated that tonight’s election is, “not a mandate for ideology.” I couldn’t agree more. I am a Democrat who strongly believes in Barack Obama, and I believe the Republican Party needed to lose this election to refocus, which I’ve discussed earlier.

To anyone who missed Barack Obama’s acceptance speech, I would strongly recommend that you find a way to watch it. I’m going to attempt to find some sleep this evening, but I’d like to leave you with some of my favorite lines from President-Elect Barack Obama.

** There are no red states or blue states there are just the United States, and for those of you who didn’t  vote for me, I promise to be your President too

** Our stories are singular but our destiny is shared

** To those who would tear the world down, we will defeat you

** Let us ask ourselves, If our children should live to see the next century… what change will they see, what progress will we have made. This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time…

And an old favorite… **YES WE CAN**

Countdown with a (non)expert prediction…

At about 3 A.M. Eastern Standard Time on November 5th, 2008, the media will officially announce the winner of the Presidential Election. If you haven’t voted yet, hurry up because they might run out of the awesome stickers. The one I received has the Presidential Seal and it’s red, white, and blue.

I have John McCain’s “lose an election than lose a war, fight, fight, fight” speech playing on CNN in the background of my office. I’ve got to give it to Mr. McCain, it’s a well crafted speech. I once again have to shout out CNN for their excellent political coverage, especially on their website. I like being able to track my local election races alongside the national scene. CNN has done by far the best job utilizing technology throughout this process, and they should be rewarded for their innovation.

I don’t really have any insight into this process. There were no lines where I voted, but I live in a relatively small community with a preponderance of senior citizens. Not being mean, this is true. I assume that many cast early or absentee ballots. I’m cautiously optimistic about Senator Obama’s chances of winning. I finally broke down and donated to his campaign last week. He secured my vote definitively after the first debate (and tentatively well before that), but I’m not the biggest proponent of giving my money away, to anyone, for any reason, especially considering the precarious economic conditions we are living with.

However, he has run such an impressive campaign in almost every facet, that I almost felt obligated to “put my money where my mouth is.” I also didn’t like that his lead in the polls started to shrink last week for no discernible reason. Obama has utilized technology to its fullest extent, and again, I believe in rewarding innovation. I feel like I’m a part of his inner circle with all of the e-mails I’ve received from him, Michelle, and Joe Biden. I’m pretty sure he’s going to put me somewhere in his cabinet…

I realize now that I made a broad, sweeping generalization regarding race in the presidential election in my last post. I still believe it’s true, but I don’t believe it tells the whole story. The media has made a “big deal” out of race in this election. The only problem with the media is that it’s a one-sided conversation. They report to you, and that’s the end of it. Obama’s single speech on race, while powerful, is all that he’s contributed to the topic. McCain released a statement saying that people will vote based on the economy, and not on race. As a country, no one really has any idea how racist or non-racist we actually are. I surely don’t. I don’t believe there is an accurate measure of racism in this country. I don’t believe the subject can or is ever appropriately broached. I’m not even sure which medium would be the best for such a discourse.

I guess all I’m left with is a question, “How do we talk about race in the United States, and how is it relevant to our country on a macro and micro level?”

If anyone wants to answer that question, I’m all ears. I know that it matters, I’m just not sure how much.

I do know that I really don’t like “arguing” politics with other decided voters. Most people who’ve made their decision have their reasons. If they want to discuss their decision and my own, then cool. But for the super passionate, must convert every non-believer type, I’m just not interested. I’m not a socialist. I don’t have anything against socialists, I just don’t believe the system of government works in practice. I’m not naive. I’m not ignorant. This election really has nothing to do with me personally. Yet I’ve been called all of those things.I think my favorite was being called a socialist today while walking toward a co-workers car in the parking lot of a restaurant. He asked if I voted, through his car window, and I said, “Yes.” He made a snide remark along the lines of not believing me (personal note, today was my wear sandals, light blue shorts, and a transformers t-shirt to work day). He then asked if I voted for McCain. I replied that I had not, but rather I’d voted for “Obama.” And he told me I was a socialist. So I smiled, admitted that I was and got into the car.

I don’t see the point of that conversation.

Oh to my prediction… I believe Obama wins 52% of the general vote, and just over 300 electoral college nods. I believe Florida stays Republican, I’m just not sure why/how. The Democrats hit 58 in the Senate, and it turns out not to matter. The Dem’s also make gains in the house. The Dow will rise 300 in early trading tomorrow, but end only 100 points up. The NASDAQ will track the Dow, but realize smaller gains. I’m not sure who is winning the THREE Mosquito Control Seats in Flagler County (three separate positions on the ballot, how awesome is that?), but I do believe that the people will fail a Florida Constitutional Amendment that Bans Gay Marriage.The winning lotto numbers are….

On another note, my owner/CEO had a candid discussion with the local paper regarding the economic crisis and its effect on small business. You can read it here. It’s also, unfortunately, one of the first pieces of news ever published regarding TheSportsRooster. It is an incredibly difficult time to be working in a small business, and we’ve been working overtime in completely new capacities trying to identity ways to save and/or make more money for the business. I thought of changing the company name to American Internet Group, calling it AIG for short, and heading up to Washington to look for a check. My plan was unanimously vetoed by everyone I’ve proposed it to.

I’m in the market for free money or free advice. I’m also willing to take both.

Oh wait, there’s an election…

“Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are,” she said.

She being Governor Sarah Palin. The statement coming after her campaign released financial records showing $150,000 worth of clothing and accessory purchases in a month. This is no joke, so if you don’t believe me click on the link above, but Palin’s hair stylist was paid more than John McCain’s foreign policy adviser.

Earrings: $20k, Suit: $50k, Hair Dude: $25k, well... you get the point. But she looks frugal, and she's living every hockeymom's dream!

I don’t trust polls one way or the other. Everyone polled said Obama won the third debate (and the first two, but who is counting), the polls showed his lead increasing to as much as 10 points. Then the AP, who I am more likely to trust regardless, release their poll, showing a statistical dead heat.

Did Obama forget to kiss a few babies along the way? Did he accidentally drop one on its head? It sounds ridiculous, but I haven’t seen or heard either candidate do anything to warrant a 10 point swing. Or to utilize widely accepted numbers, a 7 point swing!

It’s going to come down to the wire, and I have this sinking feeling in my stomach that Barack Obama is going to lose. It’s the little things that make me feel this way. Like a coworker of mine sending me a long Neal Boortz rant, where my coworker explains that:

“You should read this if you are interested in what is going on in our country’s upcoming election.  This guy is pretty intelligent and for the most part unbiased.  It is kind of long.”

Well, for anyone who doesn’t know, Neal Boortz is a registered libertarian, and he was a republican before that. That’s all fine and good, and Neal even admits it in the beginning of his rant that he’s voted Republican/Libertarian 10 times in 10 elections.  He then proceeds to usual Democrat bashing. He touches upon racism (in some weird, if you elect Barack Obama you’ll be called a racist within a year), unions, taxes, supreme court appointments, and “Obama’s friends.”

He also utilizes the right wing tactic of admitting, “hey, we really really screwed up for eight years, but there is no way you can give the legislature and the executive to a DEMOCRAT!” It’s actually a brilliant tactic, which is why you’ll hear it from every right-wing commentator. Republicans cannot regain control of the House or the Senate in this election, and they know it. But for some reason (2000-2006), people are scared of giving one party control of government. There is talk of filibuster proof majorities (which wouldn’t happen), and the most liberal agenda in the history of the United States. Is any of it true? My gut tells me that, as with most scare tactics, there is little truth here.

On to another, potentially scarier note: McCarthyism. I might be behind the times here, with Michele Bachmann’s comments last Friday on Hardball with Chris Matthews. And according to our incredibly well-dressed potential second in command, there are pro-America parts of the country, and then… well there are liberals. Even before Bachmann decided to rant and rave (and in all probability lose her reelection bid because of it), a friend of mine turned me onto this trend. Here is a quote from his e-mail, dated October 15th:

He  wasn’t even attributing any of these qualities to Barack Obama, he was just saying that he has “overtly” associated with these types of people [Reszko, Ayers, Wright]. I’m sure there are tons of influential people that Obama has overtly associated with. This all sounds like political bullshit to me–McCarthyism much?

But what do I know!

"You're all communists, just like Barack Obama"

"You're all anti-American, just like Barack Obama"

Unfortunately my friend, you seem to know more than any of us are happy to admit. It’s really frustrating and terribly unfair to be a “liberal” and be labeled as anti-American. It’s also ridiculous.

To Michele Bachmann: You deserve to lose your campaign. And you will. For a moment, it seems as though you forget who you were, and what you were doing serving and running for reelection in the United States House of Representatives. GO ELWYN TINKLENBERG!

You know what the funny part is? I agree with Neal Boortz about something. Republicans do deserve to lose this election. In as many ways as possible. They have aided in the destruction of our economy, brought our soldiers into harms way, killed the federal budget and deficit, ignored climate change, and paid billions of dollars to companies like Blackwater in blatant acts of cronyism while the wealth disparity continues to grow. But I’ll take it a step farther.

Don’t give McCain the White House because you’re afraid of Democrats controlling both branches. Give it to Obama in the hopes that a Republican loss  will force them to return to their fiscally conservative roots. We need two active, intelligent parties in this country. If Republicans get dismantled in this election, they will have to do some soul searching. And the Obama Presidency is going to be an expensive one, that’s almost guaranteed. In eight years, come back to the table in true Reagan form, not just invoking his name.

I’m a Christian. I believe in Jesus Christ, and my own moral compass is built upon Christian values. I’m not perfect, and I’ll never claim to be. But in this country, there is nothing more upsetting than the hypocritical, overbearing, and downright scary evangelical movement within the Republican party. I mean that in all seriousness. Government policy is about effectively running the country, not controlling the lives of its people. A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT OUTLAWING GAY MARRIAGE. Such an old topic, but such a great example of the insanity of *some* of these people.

Just imagine. The bill of rights, written by our forefathers to protect our right to free speech, to bear arms, and to free assembly. It protects us from search and seizure and cruel and unusual punishment. We’ve added other amendments to the Constitution, and for the most part, rightfully so. The last time we tried to control the morals of our people through the constitution, it didn’t work so well (Prohibition). But there are people who believe that we need to add another amendment. Right up there with all of the rights and protections offered by our Constitution, we need to add a discriminatory amendment that bans gay marriage. WHAT?! Who cares! We’re supposed to be a religion of understanding and forgiveness.

Ugh, it’s incredibly frustrating, and I feel like it’s getting worse. Did God really pick someone to run for office? I don’t know, maybe. Is he going to decide the election? I sure hope not, because then I wasted an hour voting. Does he hate my Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, and atheist friends? Probably not (although you atheists are on thin ice!). And does he want to run this country for us? Well he has not yet.

I believe, in all honesty, that religion should be an important part of peoples lives, if that is their choice. I believe it’s perfectly acceptable for your own personal morals and beliefs to be shaped by your religion. But that’s it. You still have to do what’s best for your country and your people when you’re elected into office. And you should still vote for candidates based on their ability to run a secular institution. I don’t know when Republicans assumed the monopoly on God, but that’s not really fair either. And this rant reminded me of why Obama is running for President in the first place (not why he wants to run, but how he was given the chance). Below is a quote, and I’ll end on that, hope no offense taken!

“The pundits, the pundits like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue States: red states for Republicans, blue States for Democrats. But I’ve got news for them, too. We worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don’t like federal agents poking around our libraries in the red states.

We coach little league in the blue states and, yes, we’ve got some gay friends in the red states.”

-Barack Obama

Maybe I'm naive, but I want to believe that this guy can play well with others.

Real Microeconomics…

I just deleted an entire post I had waiting in draft format. It compared the emperor with new clothes to Wall Street. It then compared the economy to the terrible plumbing system of my company headquarters, as I promised to do  days ago.

I just couldn’t make it work. I didn’t like the negativity, and I wasn’t bringing any relevant new information to the table. I was also dealing with the mild shock of watching the Dow fall another 500+ points. For score keeping purposes, the Dow has fallen to a five year low, as have the S&P and the Nasdaq.

A friend of mine called me last night, bluntly stating that he wanted to invest in the stock market and didn’t know anything about stocks. He is an economics graduate of a top twenty university in the country. He was taught, or able to synthesize, that it’s good to buy low and sell high. But that was as far as he’d gotten. He also wasn’t sure if we’d reached the bottom. I told him that we hadn’t, but it seemed like we were getting close. And then I started thinking.

It has been said that this economic crisis is the worst since the great depression. The Dow Jones has already lost 40% of it’s value from the all-time high (reached about a year ago). So here is the bad news: If this crisis is the worst since the great depression, then throw the all-time highs of the past 10 years out the window. Yes, the Dow was able to reach 14,000 in strong economic conditions. Well, they aren’t strong anymore. I’ve stated that the Dow could hit 7500 in 10 days. I thought that would be the bottom. Now I’m not so sure.

Theoretically, if this is the worst the economy has been in 60 years, then the markets could wide out most of the gains made during those times. Well ladies and gentlemen, the Dow closed at $177 in December of 1948. The bottom of this cycle is not in any way related to the all-time high. It really doesn’t matter. If people need money (which they do) and can’t get loans (which they can’t), then they will sell off assets.

You’ve already seen this economic effect in your neighborhoods. Garage sales, boats/cars for sale, increased activity on craigslist and ebay. People will continue to sell off non-essential assets (or liabilities) for better short term cash flow positions. It’s a natural reaction. Investments might be the last thing to go, but go they will. People always joke about hoarding cash under mattresses (which wasn’t much of a joke during the Great Depression), well right now, the sad part is people don’t have the cash to hoard. They sell off as much of their stuff as possible, and they make their mortgage payment for one month.

I don’t know how low the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P are going to go. But I hope it’s a quick ride down.

To be honest, the only investments I have to speak of are found in my 401k, which I don’t really care about. Call me crazy, but I’m young enough to make bad financial decisions regarding retirement. I hit my match on a monthly basis, and glance at my quarterly report. That’s all. I’m assuming I still have a 401k, and I’m assuming that all of the discount buying theories will hold up, and suddenly I’ll be rich. I like that assumption, but I’m not banking on it.

I minored in economics in college, and yet I never took “micro,” so if my title does not pass the smell test, well that’s because I have no idea what I’m talking about. My limited economic background is focused in education and development. My business specialization is in entrepreneurship and finance. My political science major (for some reason labeled politics at my institution) is focused on the power of the executive, and international relations/development.

And for a moment of product placement, I introduce you to MINT. Free personal finance software that ties in all of your accounts (checking, savings, loans, investments, credit cards, 401k, etc.), helps you budget, and looks for ways to save you money. It reminded me that I eat out too much for dinner and lunch. It also tracks the highest yield savings accounts and other ways to save you cash. I like it a lot.  It won the TechCrunch40 last year, and TechCrunch is one of my everyday must reads.

On a semi-fun, semi-sad note, I e-mailed Mark Cuban (yes, that Mark Cuban) to pitch him on my company. He responded within two hours. The e-mail response is reproduced below:

no thank you

all the best

m

So the fun part comes from a tech/sports billionaire, who has said in numerous interviews to do exactly what I did, following through on his promise and reading my e-mail and responding. He’s that accessible, and he’ll have an ally for life because of it. The sad part is, he said no. Three other venture capital firms have said no, and I appreciate that as well. Every other firm we’ve opened communication with has ignored us.

I’ll take a no. I’d be even more happy with a no that provides useful feedback. But being ignored by people whose job it is to find opportunities like mine, it’s really frustrating. If they all came back and said, “this is the most ridiculous idea ever,” it’d make my decision making a lot easier.

The worst part about this whole process is that we went out and did close to $100,000 of market research on our idea. The results came back so overwhelmingly positive that we had to give it a shot. People really like the concept of TheSportsRooster. I still believe it can be successful. But money is tight everywhere.

I don’t want to miss a chance to build a great company that helps people because we can’t get anyone to listen. We know it can work.

A bit more product placement: Digsby. It’s a desktop client (a program that runs on your desktop versus in a browser) that connects social networks, instant messaging, and e-mail into one “buddy list.” So I can use gchat, AIM, facebook (including chat), gmail, twitter, and more from the same program. It really makes my life easy. My girlfriend is on Gchat during the day, coworkers on AIM, a lot of business acquaintances seem to find time for facebook chat, and obviously i need constant access to my e-mail.

In conclusion, the market is scary, running a company in this economy is scary, Mark Cuban is an awesome person, Mint and Digsby are great programs, and TheSportsRooster needs money. You also know every class I’ve taken in college. Happy?