Notes on the Present…

Barack Obama has won. We know this. I feel like now is an appropriate time to discuss the political landscape, which goals President-elect Obama will be able to achieve while in office, and the markets reaction to the election.

I’d like to start with the market, if only because my prediction regarding the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P were off. From what I understand, the stock market has a higher average annual return in the first year of a Democratic President than in the first year of a Republican administration. This is simply a historical fact. I (wrongfully) believed that market sentiment in post-election day trading would reflect a kind of cautious optimism, with a major late day sell off to capture gains. I should have realized that in a recession and global financial crisis, the markets would not be as inclined to agree. However, hindsight is always 20/20 and I just didn’t see it coming. The Dow is down another 4.75% and the NAS and S&P are tracking close. I’ve gone on the record with a few associates with my belief that we haven’t reached the bottom. I believe there will be small gains, but the trend will continue downward up until, or potential after, a new stimulus package is passed by Congress. I’m not advocating for such a package for any partisan reason, nor am I even sure that I’m advocating another stimulus, but it will come. Hopefully, it will help.

From what I’ve heard, the S&P could realign with a bottom of 750-800. It will be difficult for the Dow to track below 7700, so we’ll call that the bottom. Perhaps it’s my bias toward the tech sector, but I believe the NASDAQ won’t fall much below it’s October 27th bottom of 1505, so we’ll put the floor in at 1450. The only other ticker I follow with any consistency is the NAS Powershares (QQQQ). I still believe that any opportunity to buy at or around 28 will be a steal as a medium to long term investment.

Moving on… Congratulations Rahm Emanuel. From the CNN reports I’ve read, “Rahm-bo” will be an excellent Chief of Staff. I understand that there will be (and already has been) some rumbling about Emanuel’s brazen, partisan approach, and I understand why. You are correct when you state that Barack Obama is a liberal democrat. You are correct when you state the Rahm Emanuel is a liberal democrat. But you are wrong when you state that they will govern in that manner. Barack Obama will fill out a bipartisan and well-rounded cabinet. As per his campaign, he will listen to all sides of an argument or issue before making a decision. Once that decision is made, people will have to get over their feelings and move onto the next topic. There is a lot to be done, and there are plenty of blow-hards on both sides of the aisle in Washington. Rahm isn’t one of them. That reason alone will make him a great Chief of Staff.

Congratulations, now please do your job, and do it well.

He is not the decision maker, but he will be a bulldozer that clears useless information out of the way for President Obama. Utilizing the cliche “good cop/bad cop” approach, Democrats and Republicans will have to come to the middle and work together. As honestly and directly as I can state it: Barack Obama will govern from the center. He will govern as a moderate. What makes me say that? Well, lets examine a few of his proposals and the current state of the government.

A quick glance at the issues listed by Barack Obama on his campaign webpage begin to give insight into his priorities.

1) The Economy

• A new stimulus bill will be passed, either by the current Congress or soon after January 20th. It will probably come in the form of tax rebates, somewhere in the range of $200. As much as Oil companies hate the concept of a windfall tax, I can’t be opposed to it when the country is in a certifiable recession and Exxon Mobil posted the largest US quarterly profit ever. If this tax relief is enacted, even for one year, the average American will realize an adjusted income rise of about 4%. I could be wrong here, but that’s coming a lot closer to tracking inflation than any other adjusted wage gains of the past 20 years.
• This stimulus will also include some new and much needed protection from foreclosure. However, I believe it must on an individual or families primary and only home, and to receive relief, the family must be able to afford traditional 30 yr/fixed mortgage payments on the property.
• Part of an Obama relief plan will go into infrastructure improvement, which will have an immediate impact on the unemployment rate. This matters to me for a multitude of reasons, but the primary two being that I work for two infrastructure companies and that I live in a county with the 9th highest unemployment rate in the country.
• Overall, my taxes, and the taxes of the majority of the U.S. population, who are just like me, will GO DOWN.
• We won’t touch free trade, nor should we. I understand there is a lot of talk of fair trade, which is an incredibly nice way of seeing how the world economy could be, but it’s just not a reality at this point. Obama is not a protectionist and will (or at least should) give up on these “goals” quickly. I believe this is a good thing.
• We won’t realize 5 million new jobs via the green movement, but progress will be made.

2) Education

• The last time I tracked Federal spending on education was around 2006. It was about 3% of the total budget. I believe it’s safe to assume it is no more than 4.5% in the 2008 budget. No Child Left Behind is both flawed and severely underfunded. However, it’s core principles are sound, and the policy should be revised. These were my thoughts from day one, and they mirror the policies proposed by Obama.
• Obama has charged every American with making sacrifices and giving back. He also wants to help. I believe the best example of the conjoining of these policies is the fully refundable tax credit given for the first $4,000 of college tuition, if the student performs 100 hours of community service. Under Jeb Bush, a well-liked (especially by me) Republican Governor of the State of Florida, the bright futures scholarship was established for students who performed a certain amount of community service. It makes sense, and it works. I also believe that education SHOULD be the easiest issue for both parties of government to agree upon.

3) Energy Policy

• Here Obama has some incredibly lofty goals, which I can guarantee not all of which will be met. However, there are some sound and realistic policies that Obama will implement to improve our environment and our energy situation.
• First and foremost, renewable energy investment makes sense. Ask GOOGLE, who invested millions of dollars into a solar thermal company. The government will subsidize these renewable energy companies. This will spark more innovation.
• Clean Coal is either a buzz word or a potentially useful technology. I don’t know. I do know that Nuclear Energy makes sense, and I actually like having someone in office who agrees in principle, but whose going to pour over the details before the government approves a large scale expansion of Nuclear Power plants. I don’t believe “safe” and “secure” should be words used to roadlblock building these plants, but attainable conditions and requirements should be created. If you see Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) involved, then we’ll know that Obama is serious.

I believe that last “big project” that will be achieved under the first four years of this administration is mandatory and universal healthcare for children. It will pass, and I don’t believe it will be as partisan of a battle as some people expect. Hillary Clinton wanted universal health care and made it a cornerstone of her campaign. A lot of conservatives didn’t like that concept (author bias: I support universal health care). Obama stuck to his initial agenda of children’s health care all the way through the election. It will be step one. SCHIP, a current government children’s health care program has been popular, and it’s expansion in 2007 was vetoed by President Bush. Add it all up, and the U.S. should start protecting its children’s health within the first two years of the Obama administration. Again, I believe this a moderate approach to a partisan issue, and Obama comes out in the center. If I knew anything else about the administration or it’s success, I have a feeling that I’d be working at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

I love my job, but feel free to e-mail me about opportunities. My resume includes 12 blog posts!

I don’t have much more in the way of knowledge regarding the Obama administration, but I believe we’re in for an interesting two years. The economy will recover, we will reduce our troop level in Iraq to 30,000-40,000 by then end of 2010. I hope to see improvements in Afghanistan. I’m strong believer in both Gates and Petraeus, and believe they should remain in their posts. I’m not sure of other cabinet posts, but I’ll continue to watch closely as Obama identifies his economic team.

I want to close with a few quotes made by Republicans officials after the election. I believe this kind of honesty and integrity is what the Republican Party will have to bank on in the upcoming years.

“We have got to clean up, reform and rebuild the Republican Party before we can ask Americans to trust us again. This must begin with either a change of command at the highest levels or our current leaders must embrace a bold new direction,” Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said in a statement moments after Obama clinched the election. “Our party must start today to admit our mistakes, fight for our convictions and encourage new conservatives to run for office.”

DeMint - Thank You.

“The party just simply lost its way,” said Republican Dick Armey, the former House majority leader from Texas. “It was no longer about small government and individual liberties … and the party became enormously unattractive to the American people.”

Armey - Frank and Honest Assessment

I’ve said it a few times, and I believe it bears repeating. The Republican Party and it’s agenda is not inherently bad. Or at least it wasn’t. The tenants of small government, personal responsibility, free markets, state’s rights and responsibilities, and a strong national defense are all fair and well supported policies. I don’t necessarily believe with republicans on a host of social issues, but I think that’s ok. I think, given the structure of our government, a healthy two party debate is necessary for proper policy. But when the GOP isn’t sure what it stands for, it leads to people arguing not about the issues, but rather about the character of the candidate and his/her constituency. You can regain the trust of the American people by identifying conservative policies that people want in their lives and government, and sticking to those policies. I can’t tell you what the right ones are, but I can tell you there is plenty of room in the U.S. government for a difference of opinion.

Like I said before, I’m glad that Barack Obama doesn’t have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, but I’m also hopeful that there are Republicans in office who will be willing to work toward the middle.

Early Returns…

I’m incredibly excited about tonight. I believe that the best candidate won, and I believe that he has received a mandate to lead. I understand that there will be tension from citizens and politicians alike, and I also understand that the road to true change is long and arduous. I’m still excited and hopeful. I’m not the only one.

I’m still watching the Senate elections, and I’m still watching the swing states. I was wrong about my home state of Florida, and that’s great news. I was seemingly too conservative in my initial predictions think I was close in my initial predictions, at least on the National Level. Obama will take at least 52% of the popular vote. Furthermore, Pennsylvania and Virginia voted blue. North Carolina and Indiana are still open, but leaning Obama. Missouri and Montana are still open, but leaning McCain. He will take closer to 350 electoral votes.

Democrats are still on track to take 58 seats in the Senate, which is a great number for promoting bipartisanship, especially considering the conservative nature of many newly elected members. The gains in the house were smaller than public projections, but most of the contests made sense on a local level. Except for Bachmann. You can check the elections for Flagler County (especially Mosquito Control) here. I was completely wrong about the Anti-Gay Marriage Amendment in Florida, which passed with about 63% of the vote.

I wanted to write tonight not for my own words, but to pass along a few of the text messages and status updates from friends and family. I can’t quite grasp the magnitude of these results at this time, so I’m not even going to try. I’m overwhelmed.

** I’m so happy I could cry! Talk about the land of opportunity!
** America Moves Forward. A New Great Era
** He won’t let us down
** It’s the election we [young people] won
** This is good
** Our generation starting off with a bang. Now Obama has to be as great as we think he is

Also, Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, stated that tonight’s election is, “not a mandate for ideology.” I couldn’t agree more. I am a Democrat who strongly believes in Barack Obama, and I believe the Republican Party needed to lose this election to refocus, which I’ve discussed earlier.

To anyone who missed Barack Obama’s acceptance speech, I would strongly recommend that you find a way to watch it. I’m going to attempt to find some sleep this evening, but I’d like to leave you with some of my favorite lines from President-Elect Barack Obama.

** There are no red states or blue states there are just the United States, and for those of you who didn’t  vote for me, I promise to be your President too

** Our stories are singular but our destiny is shared

** To those who would tear the world down, we will defeat you

** Let us ask ourselves, If our children should live to see the next century… what change will they see, what progress will we have made. This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time…

And an old favorite… **YES WE CAN**

Countdown with a (non)expert prediction…

At about 3 A.M. Eastern Standard Time on November 5th, 2008, the media will officially announce the winner of the Presidential Election. If you haven’t voted yet, hurry up because they might run out of the awesome stickers. The one I received has the Presidential Seal and it’s red, white, and blue.

I have John McCain’s “lose an election than lose a war, fight, fight, fight” speech playing on CNN in the background of my office. I’ve got to give it to Mr. McCain, it’s a well crafted speech. I once again have to shout out CNN for their excellent political coverage, especially on their website. I like being able to track my local election races alongside the national scene. CNN has done by far the best job utilizing technology throughout this process, and they should be rewarded for their innovation.

I don’t really have any insight into this process. There were no lines where I voted, but I live in a relatively small community with a preponderance of senior citizens. Not being mean, this is true. I assume that many cast early or absentee ballots. I’m cautiously optimistic about Senator Obama’s chances of winning. I finally broke down and donated to his campaign last week. He secured my vote definitively after the first debate (and tentatively well before that), but I’m not the biggest proponent of giving my money away, to anyone, for any reason, especially considering the precarious economic conditions we are living with.

However, he has run such an impressive campaign in almost every facet, that I almost felt obligated to “put my money where my mouth is.” I also didn’t like that his lead in the polls started to shrink last week for no discernible reason. Obama has utilized technology to its fullest extent, and again, I believe in rewarding innovation. I feel like I’m a part of his inner circle with all of the e-mails I’ve received from him, Michelle, and Joe Biden. I’m pretty sure he’s going to put me somewhere in his cabinet…

I realize now that I made a broad, sweeping generalization regarding race in the presidential election in my last post. I still believe it’s true, but I don’t believe it tells the whole story. The media has made a “big deal” out of race in this election. The only problem with the media is that it’s a one-sided conversation. They report to you, and that’s the end of it. Obama’s single speech on race, while powerful, is all that he’s contributed to the topic. McCain released a statement saying that people will vote based on the economy, and not on race. As a country, no one really has any idea how racist or non-racist we actually are. I surely don’t. I don’t believe there is an accurate measure of racism in this country. I don’t believe the subject can or is ever appropriately broached. I’m not even sure which medium would be the best for such a discourse.

I guess all I’m left with is a question, “How do we talk about race in the United States, and how is it relevant to our country on a macro and micro level?”

If anyone wants to answer that question, I’m all ears. I know that it matters, I’m just not sure how much.

I do know that I really don’t like “arguing” politics with other decided voters. Most people who’ve made their decision have their reasons. If they want to discuss their decision and my own, then cool. But for the super passionate, must convert every non-believer type, I’m just not interested. I’m not a socialist. I don’t have anything against socialists, I just don’t believe the system of government works in practice. I’m not naive. I’m not ignorant. This election really has nothing to do with me personally. Yet I’ve been called all of those things.I think my favorite was being called a socialist today while walking toward a co-workers car in the parking lot of a restaurant. He asked if I voted, through his car window, and I said, “Yes.” He made a snide remark along the lines of not believing me (personal note, today was my wear sandals, light blue shorts, and a transformers t-shirt to work day). He then asked if I voted for McCain. I replied that I had not, but rather I’d voted for “Obama.” And he told me I was a socialist. So I smiled, admitted that I was and got into the car.

I don’t see the point of that conversation.

Oh to my prediction… I believe Obama wins 52% of the general vote, and just over 300 electoral college nods. I believe Florida stays Republican, I’m just not sure why/how. The Democrats hit 58 in the Senate, and it turns out not to matter. The Dem’s also make gains in the house. The Dow will rise 300 in early trading tomorrow, but end only 100 points up. The NASDAQ will track the Dow, but realize smaller gains. I’m not sure who is winning the THREE Mosquito Control Seats in Flagler County (three separate positions on the ballot, how awesome is that?), but I do believe that the people will fail a Florida Constitutional Amendment that Bans Gay Marriage.The winning lotto numbers are….

On another note, my owner/CEO had a candid discussion with the local paper regarding the economic crisis and its effect on small business. You can read it here. It’s also, unfortunately, one of the first pieces of news ever published regarding TheSportsRooster. It is an incredibly difficult time to be working in a small business, and we’ve been working overtime in completely new capacities trying to identity ways to save and/or make more money for the business. I thought of changing the company name to American Internet Group, calling it AIG for short, and heading up to Washington to look for a check. My plan was unanimously vetoed by everyone I’ve proposed it to.

I’m in the market for free money or free advice. I’m also willing to take both.