I don’t know how many times I’ve welcomed myself back to my own blog after a long absence, but hopefully this will be the last time!
The February unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. In my humble opinion, this is the official beginning of the recovery for the U.S. economy. Enough jobs have been shed, profits lost, and consumer spending habits altered to allow the economy sufficient breathing room for a sustained resurgence. It won’t always be pretty, but aggressive companies have already begun the process of growing their market share.
One of the best indicators of a recovery is the amount of activity in the “marketing” sector of the job market. When companies begin focusing on sales and marketing, they are committing to growing their piece of the pie, which breeds competition and innovation. When these marketers and sales reps increase revenue, more jobs are created. By taking a quick look through various job boards, it’s obvious that some very intelligent companies are pushing for growth in the 2nd quarter of 2010.
I think it’s going to take 10 years, if not longer, to assess the impact of the government’s stimulus packages on the economy, but I do know that I’m relieved we never entered into a depression. Sounds scary and thoroughly uninteresting. I call this recession a “reset button” because many companies who had no need to shed jobs did so anyway. Many companies used this downturn to become leaner organizations. Microsoft announced layoffs for the first time in company history in 2009, even though the company has an estimated $40 Billion in Cash and Short Term Investments.
Companies with that much cash do not need to layoff 5000 employees. But companies that have been making that much money and growing as rapidly as Microsoft has for the past 15 years, well there’s a very good chance that they have some extraneous weight around the midsection. I mean that as no slight to the people who were handed pink slips. I am confident they are well trained and excellent employees, but chances are that Microsoft saw an opportunity to become more efficient and jumped at it. Those employees should have little trouble landing on their feet on the strength of their resume, and I believe their intelligence will help make a bunch of other companies stronger in this recovery. It’s almost a win-win once you look past the short term pain of unemployment.
Hundreds of other companies have followed suit and trimmed their workforce. Companies have also been able to get higher quality employees for a much cheaper price, and the effects of this “shortchanging” won’t be measured, at least not accurately, for many years. But it will be interesting.
The moral of the story: If you’re interested in making a job change, it’s coming closer to the time to begin looking in earnest. If you can wait another 6 months, it is recommended considering compensation packages aren’t where they should be, but the opportunities are present. The second moral, if you haven’t figured it out yet, it’s time for the country (and probably the world) to take one big collective sigh of relief and get back to work. It’s not all going to fall apart. It’s going to be okay.
A few interesting business related notes:
1) Toyota… what happened? I mean, a company who has built an entire brand on reliability… How did you let these BIG problems slip through the cracks? Good luck maintaining market share. Your competitors have been getting better and better (thanks in large part to U.S. tax dollars, but another story) and you slipped at a very inopportune time.
2) iPad… Six different prices?! No background applications?! Are you kidding me? Honestly, Steve Jobs, if this is true, you’re crazier than I thought. Look, it’s more functional than a Kindle. But the Kindle does it’s one function incredibly well. The iPad is also more expensive. It’s also pointless without 3G. It very well may be pointless with 3G. It’s just a giant iPod touch. WHAT ARE YOUR DIFFERENTIATING FACTORS???
3) Mint.com was a brilliant purchase by Intuit. I love the software because it’s simple to use and useful. I will be following closely the relationship between Quicken and Mint as Aaron Patzer really get’s involved in the operations.
Well said silbs.